Middlebury, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

877
FXUS61 KBTV 060826
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY
426 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift into the area today. Near and north of
the front scattered showers are expected, while south of the
front in southern portions of Vermont there will be a risk of
strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Areas of showers will
continue through early Saturday, with a decreasing chance of
rain in the afternoon. Generally seasonable weather is expected
next week, and an unsettled pattern should lead to more chances
for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 418 AM EDT Friday...Main concern in this period is
continued potential for locally heavy rain and strong
thunderstorms just south of a warm front that is expected to be
draped across the Adirondacks and central Vermont this
afternoon. Along this boundary, well above normal PWAT air will
be present and scattered thunderstorms will develop in the warm
sector as MLCAPE grows to near 1000 J/kg in our southern
counties. Signals for heavy rainfall continue in Orange, Rutland
and Windsor counties in Vermont where tall, skinny CAPE
profiles should develop. Southeastern portions of this area
already saw some early morning rain with a few rumbles of
thunder, and by the time we get through tonight rainfall amounts
in excess of 1 inch will be common. In fact, HREF mean 6 hourly
precipitation across much of southern and eastern Windsor
County late this afternoon is near 1"; in association with the
heavy rainfall rates, there is a 40-50% probability of localized
rainfall amounts exceeding 3 hourly flash flood guidance,
peaking in the 2 to 5 PM timeframe. Farther north, instability
will be sharply lower and expect periods of light rain with
perhaps a rumble of thunder reaching into central Vermont and
adjacent northern Adirondacks this afternoon.

Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 70s with a pretty
substantial gradient in dew points; near and south of the warm
front dew points will generally be in the mid 60s, and to the
north/west mainly in the mid to upper 50s. As the day wears on,
the warm front should tend to lift northeastward towards the
International Border, causing coverage of rain and higher dew
points shifts farther northeastward accordingly. The wet
weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger
overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system
moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area.
A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. It will
have limited moisture to work with as drier air will have
worked in behind the initial front. As such, risk of additional
thunderstorms, and coverage of showers, will be low. Greatest
chances of these isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm will
be in north central and northeastern Vermont. Most locations
will be dry Saturday afternoon, and temperatures should warm
nicely as blue skies become common from west to east with
falling humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Friday...Other than a few lingering showers
early Saturday night, the second half of the weekend should be
mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should
start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus
could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher
terrain. Highs will be seasonable, in the 70s pretty much
areawide. Rain chances increase overnight Sunday night as high
pressure shifts exits to the east, making way for another
frontal system. Increasing moisture and clouds will keep lows in
the 50s in most spots, with perhaps some upper 40s in the
Northeast Kingdom.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 420 AM EDT Friday...Unsettled weather will be the rule
through much of next week. An upper trough will swing into the
Great Lakes early in the week, with a series of fronts to cross
our region in the preceding southwest flow. These fronts along
with increasing moisture will result in rounds of showers and
possible thunderstorms for the first half of the week. The upper
trough looks to pivot overhead on Wednesday, finally turning us
over to northwest flow, with perhaps a turn toward drier weather
thereafter. That being said, some guidance is showing additional
shortwaves moving through the northwest flow aloft late in the
week. Exact timing of each of these fronts and upper shortwaves
is tough and differs from model to model and run to run, so have
stayed close to the NBM, which gives the highest rain chances on
Tuesday. Otherwise, temperatures should remain seasonable, with
highs generally ranging from around 70F to around 80F while lows
remain in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will continue at all
terminals through much of the TAF period. Calm or light north,
or northeast at MSS, will be present. A shower will move over
RUT roughly between 0630 and 0730Z with some MVFR visibility
reductions possible, but otherwise the next 6 hours look
uneventful. Beyond that, light showers could affect sites from
about 16Z through 00Z, primarily in the central part of the
airspace, while northwestern areas stay dry. Meanwhile, greater
chances for thunderstorms exists at RUT, primarily after 18Z and
peaking between 20 and 22Z before chances decrease. Any direct
hits would result in IFR visibilities, gusty winds, and possible
small hail. Ceilings after 00Z, especially after 03Z, will
trend MVFR especially where rain is more likely to occur today,
at MPV and RUT, and possibly EFK.

Outlook...

Friday night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Kutikoff